Boise State vs Nevada 12/1/2012

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Boise State is a solid favorite with a 71% chance to beat Nevada. D.J. Harper is projected for 94 rushing yards and a 76% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 29% of simulations where Nevada wins, Cody Fajardo averages 1.34 TD passes vs 0.6 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.68 TDs to 0.85 interceptions. Stefphon Jefferson averages 150 rushing yards and 1.42 rushing TDs when Nevada wins and 132 yards and 0.75 TDs in losses. Boise State has a 38% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 81% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NEV +8 --- Over/Under line is 63
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